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It was eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery berated him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the reason of the team's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As the in-form star swept in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning any of their first six games, are somehow just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?

It remains a rather hard query to address. History, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the wins have stacked up.

According to Opta, in only two games has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the margins are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their star man to rescue them with two precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it happened in London, and once more versus Manchester United.

The initial strike came from a superb shot, bent just inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa must confront in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.

• The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
• The winger could transform into the player he was in Germany.
• The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.

The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.