Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
